"THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE" LETTER

With respect to Mr B, having an opinion against this being considered a bona fide Z letter is fine - it's all democratic and easy-going here. And no-one's ramming it down anyone's throat that this STATE letter is real, or claiming expertise in validating it as so. These little disputes do tend to hijack threads somewhat though.

The value in discussing the letter AS IF it were a true Z correspondence mainly lies in examining the CONTENT - and how that might help us in our Z investigations. If it doesn't help then we move on, but at least we'll have given it some consideration.

Theforeigner wrote:

Theforeigner wrote:

Quote :

I have now sent the new letter and the Lake Berryess door to my x-husband and have him take a look at it.
He knows the Zodiac case pretty well, especially the letters/handwriting side of the case due to that he has been my consulter in handwriting matters through the last 4 years,

His educations are typographer, graphic designer and he has a pennmaship. He has worked with this stuf for over 30 years and he is VERY good.
Of course he is not a documnet expert, but it´s pretty close IMO.

I´ll let you know what he says about it.

FWIW for you other forum members;
My x-husband has now used som time to studie the "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE/ THE BLEEDING KNIFE" letter, and his opinion is that the "THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE/ THE BLEEDING KNIFE" letter indeed was written by the Zodiac killer.
He says that he has no doubt whatsoever that it was created by the Zodiac killer.

I personaly belive that my x-husbands view and opinion is both professional and unbiased.

That is very interesting, imo. We can argue back and forth about the letters being authentic until AK
pastes the FBI's opinion for the 100th time on this thread.
But opinions like the one from TF's ex sways me more than anything I have read on this letter.
Good stuff and ty.

Caresut, with all due respect, "TF's Ex", whoever this person is, has provided us with:

a) No information saying what his/her credentials are regarding the QD examination; and

b) absolutely no information as to why he/she thinks the letters are genuine.

My opinion of this being a (bad) fake still stands.

The tone of it and using Zodiac-isms would be a given for someone faking it.

But, the best argument was given by Entropy--(I think).

The letters PROVEN to be from Zodiac and what they state before and after just don't jibe with this letter. Period.

But for those who think it's real...have at it. Maybe you can figure out if he killed all those folks or took out any cops.

Zabagliona wrote:

Caresut, with all due respect, "TF's Ex", whoever this person is, has provided us with:

a) No information saying what his/her credentials are regarding the QD examination; and

b) absolutely no information as to why he/she thinks the letters are genuine.

Hi Zab, I think the same question goes for the nay sayers. what reasons are you or others saying it's not genuine. Really look at it, and read the verbiage... think about the dates, time periods. Also... I always think about my writing. IF I'm awake an alert my writing looks pretty good. If I'm multi tasking (which is alot) or my mind is on something else, it looks bad....and doesn't even look like my writing. If I had killing or something else on my mind, from being sick or deranged, or anything possible with the Z.... well my writing would look scrambled...not the same... jes saying. I don't think anyone cares IF the letters are real or fake as far as winning this argument I know I do NOT have to win. But I DO hope when we all get a chance to look n ponder something new that could be related to the case, that we all really do that. That we all really look, ponder ... like say we are CSI or something ( hey, don't laugh :-) But you have to really look at it as a possible......and then fine turn it ...and see if it is or isn't. That is what I would like to hear from everyone .

Zamantha wrote:

...what reasons are you or others saying it's not genuine. Really look at it, and read the verbiage... think about the dates, time periods. Also... I always think about my writing. IF I'm awake an alert my writing looks pretty good. If I'm multi tasking (which is alot) or my mind is on something else, it looks bad....and doesn't even look like my writing.

I know this was directed at Zab, but I'm chiming in.

Tone and verbiage: If one was to fake a letter, they better be able to pull that off somewhat, or what would be the point?

Handwriting: When handwriting doesn't quite match a common response becomes "he probably wrote differently at times".. If that is the case why not just consider all the copy-cats real? Ya know?

Really looking at it and reading it and studying the dates and time periods is truly what makes me say, no way. I think we can all agree at first glance this looks NOTHING like Zodiac's other letters. Of course some things would match--they would HAVE to if you are trying to mimic someone. But even the stuff that somewhat matches...looks "tried"...and badly so.

Unfortunately, I think some want this to be from Zodiac so we go looking for ways to make it so. Read his real letters, before and after.

Perfect Tahoe, that's what I'm saying. Let's hear the reasons behind the Pro's n the Con's.... step it up an really ponder n post your reasoning. Kudos, good work.... I for one LOVE hearing a good Debate, no matter what side of the fence I'm on. I've also changed my mind on things....when I learn or hear more, that's what these forums are all about, learning from each other. )

Good points!

My reason for leaning towards it being real is the fact that 38 intended victims were indicated. Years later, Z mentioned 37 (only one off). Z couldnt know about this unreleased letter. So was it just a coincidence? He could have said 50, or 60, or 80, but he said 37.

Zabagliona wrote:

Caresut, with all due respect, "TF's Ex", whoever this person is, has provided us with:

a) No information saying what his/her credentials are regarding the QD examination; and

b) absolutely no information as to why he/she thinks the letters are genuine.

TF has told us his experience with handwriting. This is a message board, not a grand jury.
TF went to the trouble of having him look at it and I found his remarks interesting as he
is so convinced it is genuine.
I still think the letter is fake as LE ruled it out. But TF's post did make me take another look.

I am relatively new here, so I have absolutely no knowledge of his/her handwriting knowledge....Also, I don't even know for sure what gender TF is, actually...and while that does not matter, this shows you that I do not know who his/her "ex" is....

There is no post that I have seen here explaining anything about who he is, so a statement saing that Mr./Ms. X thinks the letters are genuine has no "meat" on it...

Zabagliona wrote:

There is no post that I have seen here explaining anything about who he is, so a statement saing that Mr./Ms. X thinks the letters are genuine has no "meat" on it...

I quoted TF's statement about him above in the post you responded to this morning.



Theforeigner wrote:

Quote :

I have now sent the new letter and the Lake Berryess door to my x-husband and have him take a look at it.
He knows the Zodiac case pretty well, especially the letters/handwriting side of the case due to that he has been my consulter in handwriting matters through the last 4 years,

His educations are typographer, graphic designer and he has a pennmaship. He has worked with this stuf for over 30 years and he is VERY good.
Of course he is not a documnet expert, but it´s pretty close IMO.

I´ll let you know what he says about it.

caresut wrote:

Zabagliona wrote:

Caresut, with all due respect, "TF's Ex", whoever this person is, has provided us with:

a) No information saying what his/her credentials are regarding the QD examination; and

b) absolutely no information as to why he/she thinks the letters are genuine.

TF has told us his experience with handwriting. This is a message board, not a grand jury.
TF went to the trouble of having him look at it and I found his remarks interesting as he
is so convinced it is genuine.
I still think the letter is fake as LE ruled it out. But TF's post did make me take another look.

Has LE ruled it out? There are 3 possible solutions to letters received in the Z case:

*Definitely from Z

*Definitely NOT from Z

*Undetermined

Doesnt this letter fit into the undetermined category? I have yet to see a memo that rules it out as fake, or one that confirms it as a legit Z letter.

morf13 wrote:

caresut wrote:

I still think the letter is fake as LE ruled it out. But TF's post did make me take another look.

Has LE ruled it out? There are 3 possible solutions to letters received in the Z case:

*Definitely from Z

*Definitely NOT from Z

*Undetermined

Doesnt this letter fit into the undetermined category? I have yet to see a memo that rules it out as fake, or one that confirms it as a legit Z letter.

No, there is no memo that rules it out as fake shown anywhere. My opinion is that LE ruled it out.
I did not word it very well before.

caresut wrote:

Zabagliona wrote:

There is no post that I have seen here explaining anything about who he is, so a statement saing that Mr./Ms. X thinks the letters are genuine has no "meat" on it...

I quoted TF's statement about him above in the post you responded to this morning.



Theforeigner wrote:

Quote :

I have now sent the new letter and the Lake Berryess door to my x-husband and have him take a look at it.
He knows the Zodiac case pretty well, especially the letters/handwriting side of the case due to that he has been my consulter in handwriting matters through the last 4 years,

His educations are typographer, graphic designer and he has a pennmaship. He has worked with this stuf for over 30 years and he is VERY good.
Of course he is not a documnet expert, but it´s pretty close IMO.

I´ll let you know what he says about it.

Nope, that material was not up when I was on....sorry....nice to have his opinion...

Morf; sometimes you have to read "in between the lines"....I think we have a subtle clue here in that LE put this letter with the other letters that were clearly not written by Z...

Say what you want, I disagree. There were ones that were clearly considered forgeries. This one was not noted as clearly a forgery. Stick it in the "maybe" file, IMO.

I have posted them before, so unless there is someone who hasn't seen them and wants to, I won't post them again. But the docs show the FBI handwriting expert - while noting distortion and that they were not written as "freely" - said the Fairfield letters had characteristics matching previous letters and that they "may have" been prepared by the Zodiac. Then later an analyst (same or different, we don't know) mentioned the Fairfield letters and while noting the issues declares that ALL letters sent to the FBI, INCLUDING FAIRFIELD, were PROBABLY prepared by one person.

Why do people still ignore that?

It also appears Graysmith says they were a hoax, and they are NOT on the SFPD list of confirmed Zodiac letters. And I think the SFPD at that time relied on Morrill at Cal DOJ. But we haven't seen the Morrill report on these, if it exists.

One factor may have been that in 1969 Zodiac letters were all pretty similar. Then here was one that was different. Later, with Belli, Count Marco, SLA and others, we would see Zodiac use different styles.

There are several fakes in the FBI file, and they say something like "While it could not be proven completely that this was not from the author of the previous letters, there was no strong reason to think so and several factors that did not match."

AK Wilks wrote:

...the docs show the FBI handwriting expert - while noting distortion and that they were not written as "freely" - said the Fairfield letters had characteristics matching previous letters and that they "may have" been prepared by the Zodiac. Then later an analyst (same or different, we don't know) mentioned the Fairfield letters and while noting the issues declares that ALL letters sent to the FBI, INCLUDING FAIRFIELD, were PROBABLY prepared by one person.

Why do people still ignore that?

ALL the letters?? Ugh.

One analyst saying "probably" doesn't cut it for me AK. I think if you factor in what Zodiac stated before and after, you have the answer--this was not a Zodiac communique.

If you look at just characteristics, yes there are similiarities as stated originally by the FBI. As well there should be...if someone pretending to be Zodiac.

One guy later saying ALL the letters were PROBABLY prepared by one person...now that obviously couldn't be the case. So that alone makes me dismiss what this (later) analyst stated.

I am taking into account a lot more than writing style and I have to wonder if this guy did the same.

AK Wilks wrote:

One factor may have been that in 1969 Zodiac letters were all pretty similar. Then here was one that was different. Later, with Belli, Count Marco, SLA and others, we would see Zodiac use different styles.

I think Zodiac wrote like he did in the Belli letter at the beginning of a couple of his other letters. I believe the Dragon card and the Button letter start off very Belli letter like.

The Count Marco letter and the SLA letter (I think the SLA letter was SLA and it was written right around the abduction of Patti Hearst), I too think are very questionable. Just my own take on things...

"ALL" meaning all to that point in time, April 28, 1970.

The FBI analyst had better quality versions, the envelopes and more information than we do. And he is a trained expert, we are not. So, yes, I do give some credence to what he says.

And Morrill is not infalliable. He thought the April 78 letter was real, even after other experts said it was fake. And Morrill says Zodiac wrote the SLA and Red Phantom letters, while it seems the FBI did NOT endorse those as Zodiac. But Morrill does accept Riverside as Z, which I think is correct, and he was regarded as one of the best, and probably spent a lot more time studying Z writing than the FBI analyst did. And Morrill didn't hesitate to say that Allen did not write the Z letters, despite detectives being hot on Allen.

Also, the Fairfield letter of 12/7/69 asks for "Help", just like Zodiac would in the Belli letter. The Fairfield letters of 12/7 and 12/16 threaten police, as Zodiac would in the April 20 "My Name" letter. And the Fairfield letter of 12/16 threatens to kill 38 people - and in January 1974 Zodiac would claim 37 dead, and that was before the October 12, 1974 murder of Arlis Perry. And finally, the Fairfield letter of 12/16 threatens to kill government employess and to kill more in Sacramento than anywhere else. In 1970, two possible Zodiac victims were Sacramento residents - hospital nurse Judith Hakari and court reporter Nancy Bennallack.

And yet, while I consider all of that very important and indicia of realness, now that I am actually holding these letters in my hand, something seems "off" about them. They don't have the command or tone, the thought or planning, of previous or future Zodiac letters IMO. And I can't determine if that means they are probable fakes OR if Zodiac was creating a different persona.

From the new FBI files recovered by Morf, these are the ENVELOPES that held the Fairfield "Bleeding Knife...State is in trouble" and "+ he will be a cop" letters.

I have to kinda change my view, I had leaned slightly to somewhat in favor of these perhaps being real Zodiac letters, with him affecting a different style and tone, but still perhaps being from Zodiac, because parts of them rang true to me and fit with other things.

But these envelopes have ZIP CODES, something no real Z letter has, and the overall feel does not look correct to me. I now have to lean towards these letters probably being fake.

Good points AK. Also, the mailing was NOT double stamped like Z was fond of,but rather it mentions 'postage due'

Thanks for posting this…I can’t focus because of what happened 20 minutes from my house in Newtown Ct…I’ll will try and post later tonight how important this letter is

Daniel…

Dan very sorry to hear you live near Newtown, where this horrible tragic shooting has happened. They are now saying 20 children dead, 6 adults, the shooter and a brother at home. 28 dead.

I hope everyone you know is ok.

I know the thoughts and prayers of the entire country will be with Newtown.

On the matter of this letter, I can only issue a caution. If you look carefully at all the evidence, in particular the envelopes, IMO it is unlikely this is a real Zodiac letter. So I would be careful linking it to other aspects of the case. It may fit with some other clues you have, or other theories, but if this is a hoax, as it seems, then it is just a coincidence. Of course you may have another take on it, and may have reasons to think it is real. I used to think this could be real, but the new evidence of the envelopes caused me to change my view.

morf13 wrote:

Finally, here it is, a suspected letter from Zodiac..."THIS STATE IS IN TROUBLE"


The FBI did not give me any additional info about this letter, no facts, no dates, nothing.

Starting to think that this may be a real z letter. Why? Because it is from December,69. This one below is confirmed to be from Z,and is only from a few weeks earlier(bus bomb letter).


So,if the image of the bus bomb letter wasnt published,how would a copycat draw such a similar symbol a few weeks later??? The little x's or whatever, hovering around the crosshair symbol,very similar in my opinion. Anyone else think so?

Z obviously had a basement.

QT

Morf that is an interesting similarity but I am still troubled by the envelopes with zip codes and under postage stamped.